2020 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

17·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.051
  • 41.8%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback-0.063
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.030
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -4.93CPOE-1.32
  • 36.0%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.76
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:41657Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 11:14424Punt7–0
PHIQ1 8:581056Field goal10–0
WASQ1 2:1330Punt10–0
PHIQ1 1:52610Punt10–0
WASQ2 13:18850Missed field goal10–0
PHIQ2 9:24647Touchdown17–0
WASQ2 6:54417Punt17–0
PHIQ2 5:1535Punt17–0
WASQ2 3:0032Punt17–0
PHIQ2 1:4410Turnover17–0
WASQ2 1:37545Touchdown17–7
PHIQ2 0:4030Punt17–7
WASQ2 0:0700End of half17–7
PHIQ3 15:0038Punt17–7
WASQ3 13:243-8Punt17–7
PHIQ3 11:5310Turnover17–7
WASQ3 11:44520Touchdown17–14
PHIQ3 9:25840Missed field goal17–14
WASQ3 5:353-5Punt17–14
PHIQ3 3:57929Turnover on downs17–14
WASQ3 1:13426Field goal17–17
PHIQ4 14:153-16Punt17–17
WASQ4 12:271348Touchdown17–24
PHIQ4 6:13517Turnover on downs17–24
WASQ4 4:31420Field goal17–27
PHIQ4 3:251-3Turnover17–27
WASQ4 3:1557Turnover on downs17–27
PHIQ4 0:29315End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz24/4227022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Boston Scott9353.90
Corey Clement6193.20
Carson Wentz122.00
Jason Huntley111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert891011
Jalen Reagor14550
DeSean Jackson27460
Greg Ward57310
Boston Scott22190
Zach Ertz37181
Corey Clement2220
John Hightower14-20

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins17/3117810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson9364.00
Peyton Barber17291.72
Dwayne Haskins7172.40
J.D. McKissic3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin57610
Steven Sims33500
Logan Thomas48371
Dontrelle Inman25210
Antonio Gibson2280
J.D. McKissic1510

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

39.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.01