2020 · Week 1 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.051
- 41.8%Success rate42.1%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.030
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- -4.93CPOE-1.32
- 36.0%Third-down rate40.2%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.61Points / drive1.76
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 24/42 | 270 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Scott | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jason Huntley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 8 | 9 | 101 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 7 | 18 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| John Hightower | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 17/31 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 17 | 29 | 1.7 | 2 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
39.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.01