Closing spread
CLE -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.091
- 44.2%Success rate46.9%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.122EPA / rush-0.034
- 6.5%Explosive rate11.2%
- +0.03CPOE+2.55
- 37.1%Third-down rate45.5%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 1.87Points / drive2.32
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 37/61 | 316 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 7 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 7 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 13 | 29 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| John Ross | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 16/23 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 22 | 124 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 86 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.86