2020 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

30·35

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CLE -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.091
  • 44.2%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.122EPA / rush-0.034
  • 6.5%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +0.03CPOE+2.55
  • 37.1%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.32
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:001441Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 7:131090Touchdown3–7
CINQ1 1:48517Punt3–7
CLEQ2 13:28357Touchdown3–14
CINQ2 11:54657Touchdown10–14
CLEQ2 9:00323Punt10–14
CINQ2 7:21412Punt10–14
CLEQ2 5:251263Touchdown10–21
CINQ2 1:311255Field goal13–21
CLEQ2 0:0200End of half13–21
CLEQ3 15:001379Turnover on downs13–21
CINQ3 8:025-5Turnover13–21
CLEQ3 5:5321Touchdown13–28
CINQ3 5:451433Field goal16–28
CLEQ3 0:20749Turnover16–28
CINQ4 11:221568Touchdown23–28
CLEQ4 5:55675Touchdown23–35
CINQ4 3:551675Touchdown30–35
CLEQ4 0:4300End of half30–35

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow37/6131630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon16462.90
Joe Burrow7192.70
Giovani Bernard133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd78721
Drew Sample79450
C.J. Uzomah46421
Joe Mixon44400
Tee Higgins36350
Mike Thomas44311
A.J. Green313290
Giovani Bernard57220
John Ross0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield16/2321921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb221245.62
Kareem Hunt10868.61
Baker Mayfield351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.46741
Jarvis Landry33460
KhaDarel Hodge22390
Austin Hooper24220
Kareem Hunt22151
Harrison Bryant12140
Nick Chubb1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.86