2020 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

21·42

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

51

Model margin

+8.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.221
  • 45.5%Success rate50.7%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.353
  • -0.156EPA / rush+0.025
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.27CPOE+6.90
  • 41.6%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
  • 2.14Points / drive2.98
  • 1.9%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
DETQ1 15:00960Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 10:331150Field goal7–3
DETQ1 5:421375Touchdown14–3
GBQ1 0:041070Touchdown14–10
DETQ2 10:09935Punt14–10
GBQ2 6:07853Punt14–10
DETQ2 1:453-2Punt14–10
GBQ2 1:00532Touchdown14–17
DETQ2 0:14231Missed field goal14–17
GBQ3 15:00175Touchdown14–24
DETQ3 14:4834Punt14–24
GBQ3 13:09955Punt14–30
DETQ3 8:3710Opp touchdown14–31
DETQ3 8:3239Punt14–31
GBQ3 7:331264Field goal14–34
DETQ3 1:32875Touchdown21–34
GBQ4 13:00879Touchdown21–42
DETQ4 7:593-10Punt21–42
GBQ4 6:1430Punt21–42
DETQ4 4:21530Turnover on downs21–42
GBQ4 2:13311End of half21–42

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/3324421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson7415.90
Kerryon Johnson8324.01
D'Andre Swift5122.40
Matthew Stafford144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson44620
D'Andre Swift55600
Quintez Cephus33540
Marvin Hall12241
Marvin Jones46231
Danny Amendola27210
Jamal Agnew1100
Kerryon Johnson0100
Ty Johnson0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/3024020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones181689.32
Jamaal Williams8637.90
AJ Dillon5173.40
Aaron Rodgers2126.00
Tim Boyle2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Jones48681
Marquez Valdes-Scantling37640
Allen Lazard35450
Davante Adams33360
Robert Tonyan23251
Marcedes Lewis1140
Tyler Ervin1140
Jace Sternberger0100
Aaron Rodgers11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +72.7%5.3%6.9%3.1%5.0%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.0%

Expected total

48.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.93