Closing spread
GB -7
Total
51
Model margin
+8.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.221
- 45.5%Success rate50.7%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.353
- -0.156EPA / rush+0.025
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.27CPOE+6.90
- 41.6%Third-down rate50.7%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
- 2.14Points / drive2.98
- 1.9%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/33 | 244 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/30 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 18 | 168 | 9.3 | 2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jace Sternberger | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.0%
Expected total
48.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.93