Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.189
- 42.0%Success rate50.8%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.297
- -0.086EPA / rush+0.070
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.40CPOE+2.16
- 40.6%Third-down rate47.4%
- 64.8%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 1.74Points / drive2.85
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 30/45 | 339 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 16 | 102 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 4 | 4 | 84 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 6 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| James Robinson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/24 | 239 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 25 | 84 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Senorise Perry | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 5 | 84 | 2 |
| Adam Humphries | 5 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Cameron Batson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
48.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.02