Closing spread
KC -8.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.177EPA / play+0.043
- 50.2%Success rate43.8%
- +0.288EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.141
- 11.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.60CPOE+0.07
- 49.5%Third-down rate45.1%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.85Points / drive2.02
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. LAC are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/47 | 302 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 11 | 99 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 14 | 90 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 6 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/33 | 311 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 16 | 93 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 23 | 64 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Joe Reed | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.52