2020 · Week 2 · Division

Final / OT

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

23·20

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

KC -8.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapChargers
  • +0.177EPA / play+0.043
  • 50.2%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.288EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.141
  • 11.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +2.60CPOE+0.07
  • 49.5%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.02
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. LAC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LAC
LACQ1 15:00879Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 11:23422Punt0–7
LACQ1 9:50635Punt0–7
KCQ1 6:24413Punt0–7
LACQ1 4:49924Turnover on downs0–7
KCQ1 1:28410Punt0–7
LACQ2 15:0038Punt0–7
KCQ2 13:271073Touchdown6–7
LACQ2 8:511281Touchdown6–14
KCQ2 2:30819Punt6–14
LACQ2 0:53774End of half6–14
KCQ3 15:00520Punt6–14
LACQ3 12:571157Field goal6–17
KCQ3 8:07840Field goal9–17
LACQ3 3:11645Turnover9–17
KCQ3 0:19790Touchdown17–17
LACQ4 12:481767Field goal17–20
KCQ4 2:271388Field goal20–20
LACOT39Punt20–20
KCOT1339Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes27/4730220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes6549.00
Clyde Edwards-Helaire10383.80
Darwin Thompson4215.30
Tyreek Hill199.00
Mecole Hardman133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill511991
Travis Kelce914901
Clyde Edwards-Helaire68320
Mecole Hardman23300
Demarcus Robinson34280
Darrel Williams11120
Sammy Watkins13110
Darwin Thompson0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/3331111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler16935.80
Joshua Kelley23642.80
Justin Herbert4184.51
Joe Reed188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen710960
Hunter Henry68830
Austin Ekeler44550
Joshua Kelley22490
Mike Williams24140
Jalen Guyton12141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.52