2012 · Week 5

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

9·6

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapChiefs
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.132
  • 41.5%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback-0.172
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.084
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -0.27CPOE-3.02
  • 37.1%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
  • 1.80Points / drive0.91
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–KC
KCQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:12517Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:57635Punt0–0
BALQ1 6:5930Punt0–0
KCQ1 5:33529Turnover0–0
BALQ1 3:10542Field goal3–0
KCQ1 1:21843Turnover3–0
BALQ2 12:28725Punt3–0
KCQ2 9:011258Field goal3–3
BALQ2 2:48822Punt3–3
KCQ2 1:04643Punt3–3
BALQ3 15:0000Turnover3–3
KCQ3 14:54716Turnover3–3
BALQ3 11:41685Field goal6–3
KCQ3 8:0035Punt6–3
BALQ3 5:50327Turnover6–3
KCQ3 4:282-1Turnover6–3
BALQ3 3:48856Field goal9–3
KCQ4 15:00735Punt9–3
BALQ4 11:5635Punt9–3
KCQ4 10:151167Field goal9–6
BALQ4 4:31621End of half9–6

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco13/2718701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice171026.00
Joe Flacco3144.70
Bernard Pierce2136.50
Anthony Allen100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin410820
Torrey Smith34380
Dennis Pitta34220
Ray Rice13160
Ed Dickson11110
Jacoby Jones0200
Tandon Doss0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel9/159202
Brady Quinn2/23200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles311404.50
Shaun Draughn12403.30
Cyrus Gray4205.00
Matt Cassel4143.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe68600
Jon Baldwin13260
Jamaal Charles22210
Cyrus Gray11120
Shaun Draughn1150
Tony Moeaki0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.3%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.03