Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.132
- 41.5%Success rate40.7%
- +0.070EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.084
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- -0.27CPOE-3.02
- 37.1%Third-down rate33.1%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
- 1.80Points / drive0.91
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 13/27 | 187 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 17 | 102 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Allen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 9/15 | 92 | 0 | 2 |
| Brady Quinn | 2/2 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 31 | 140 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.03