Closing spread
NE -7
Total
47
Model margin
+1.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.004
- 47.4%Success rate46.5%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.040
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.052
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.18CPOE-2.06
- 45.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 59.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 2.49Points / drive1.88
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. NE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/32 | 261 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfrow | 6 | 9 | 84 | 1 |
| Bryan Edwards | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 17/28 | 162 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 9 | 117 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 2 |
| J.J. Taylor | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Zuber | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 7 | 10 | 49 | 1 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.95