2020 · Week 3

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

20·36

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

47

Model margin

+1.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.004
  • 47.4%Success rate46.5%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.040
  • -0.067EPA / rush+0.052
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +2.18CPOE-2.06
  • 45.5%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 59.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 2.49Points / drive1.88
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5LV @ NE17–45NE
2025 · W1LV @ NE20–13RAIDERS
2023 · W6NE @ LV17–21RAIDERS
2022 · W15NE @ LV24–30RAIDERS
2017 · W11NE @ OAK33–8NE
2014 · W3OAK @ NE9–16NE
2011 · W4NE @ OAK31–19NE
2008 · W15NE @ OAK49–26NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–NE
NEQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:30418Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:5669Punt0–0
LVQ1 7:42877Turnover0–0
NEQ1 3:09416Turnover0–0
LVQ1 1:5348Field goal3–0
NEQ1 0:18845Field goal3–3
LVQ2 12:32217Turnover3–3
NEQ2 12:02837Field goal3–6
LVQ2 7:56417Punt3–6
NEQ2 5:381286Touchdown3–13
LVQ2 0:34547Touchdown10–13
NEQ2 0:0600End of half10–13
LVQ3 15:00848Missed field goal10–13
NEQ3 10:43769Touchdown10–20
LVQ3 6:4136Punt10–20
NEQ3 5:04661Field goal10–23
LVQ3 1:281068Field goal13–23
NEQ4 11:221181Touchdown13–29
LVQ4 5:171-6Opp touchdown13–36
LVQ4 5:091075Touchdown20–36
NEQ4 1:5411End of half20–36

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr24/3226120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs16714.40
Devontae Booker33110.30
Jalen Richard11414.00
Derek Carr2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Renfrow69841
Bryan Edwards23480
Nelson Agholor23320
Zay Jones33320
Foster Moreau22251
Josh Jacobs34120
Darren Waller2490
Jalen Richard3380

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton17/2816211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel911713.00
Rex Burkhead6498.22
J.J. Taylor11433.90
Cam Newton9273.00
Isaiah Zuber11313.00
N'Keal Harry122.00
Julian Edelman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rex Burkhead710491
N'Keal Harry24340
Damiere Byrd33270
Julian Edelman26230
Sony Michel22230
Jakob Johnson1160
Ryan Izzo0100
J.J. Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

4.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.95