2023 · Week 6

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

17·21

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

LV perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.189EPA / play-0.086
  • 38.9%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.226EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.151
  • 5.5%Explosive rate5.9%
  • -3.39CPOE-3.79
  • 30.8%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.66
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.7 points. LV are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5LV @ NE17–45NE
2025 · W1LV @ NE20–13RAIDERS
2022 · W15NE @ LV24–30RAIDERS
2020 · W3LV @ NE20–36NE
2017 · W11NE @ OAK33–8NE
2014 · W3OAK @ NE9–16NE
2011 · W4NE @ OAK31–19NE
2008 · W15NE @ OAK49–26NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–LV
LVQ1 15:001762Field goal0–3
NEQ1 6:5436Punt0–3
LVQ1 5:58527Turnover0–3
NEQ1 3:343-8Punt0–3
LVQ1 1:36859Touchdown0–10
NEQ2 12:22867Field goal3–10
LVQ2 8:3835Punt3–10
NEQ2 6:58843Turnover3–10
LVQ2 3:361057Field goal3–13
NEQ2 0:1000End of half3–13
NEQ3 15:001170Touchdown10–13
LVQ3 8:561073Field goal10–16
NEQ3 3:5532Punt10–16
LVQ3 2:27859Field goal10–19
NEQ4 13:031978Touchdown17–19
LVQ4 3:3369Punt17–19
NEQ4 2:2342Safety17–21
LVQ4 1:4700End of half17–21

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones24/3320001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson10464.61
Ezekiel Elliott7344.91
Kendrick Bourne144.00
Mac Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne1011890
Mike Gesicki33280
Rhamondre Stevenson56240
Ezekiel Elliott11150
Pharaoh Brown11150
Ty Montgomery1190
DeVante Parker1370
Hunter Henry1370
Tyquan Thornton1260

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo14/2216211
Brian Hoyer6/1010200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs25773.10
Jimmy Garoppolo242.00
Tre Tucker144.00
Zamir White221.00
Brian Hoyer3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Mayer56750
Jakobi Meyers57611
Tre Tucker22570
Davante Adams25290
Austin Hooper22190
Josh Jacobs25160
Zamir White2270
DeAndre Carter0100
Ameer Abdullah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.39
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.08