Closing spread
LV -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
LV perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.189EPA / play-0.086
- 38.9%Success rate41.5%
- -0.226EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.151
- 5.5%Explosive rate5.9%
- -3.39CPOE-3.79
- 30.8%Third-down rate35.2%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.00Points / drive1.66
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. LV are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 24/33 | 200 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 10 | 11 | 89 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 14/22 | 162 | 1 | 1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 6/10 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 25 | 77 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.08