Closing spread
NE -6
Total
55
Model margin
+0.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. OAK are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/30 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 10 | 97 | 9.7 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 9 | 14 | 158 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Matthew Slater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.