Closing spread
NE -6
Total
55
Model margin
+0.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutAaron HernandezTEKnee· DNP
- OutMike WrightDEConcussion· DNP
- OutSebastian VollmerTBack· DNP
- QuestionableAlbert HaynesworthDEBack· DNP
- QuestionableGary GuytonLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableKyle ArringtonCBChest· Limited
- QuestionableLeigh BoddenCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick ChungSHand· Limited
- QuestionableRas-I DowlingCBHip· DNP
- QuestionableRyan WendellCCalf· Limited
- QuestionableShaun EllisDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTaylor PriceWRHamstring· Limited
- LimitedJerod MayoLBThigh
- LimitedLogan MankinsGIllness
- LimitedZoltan MeskoPleft Knee
- ProbableDane FletcherLBThumb· Full
- ProbableJosh BarrettSThumb· Full
Raiders
- OutChris JohnsonCBHamstring· DNP
- OutLouis MurphyWRGroin· DNP
- QuestionableJacoby FordWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMarcel ReeceRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMatt ShaughnessyDEShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableMichael HuffSConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableMichael MitchellSKnee· Limited
- QuestionableRicky BrownLBConcussion· DNP
- ProbableChimdi ChekwaCBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableJason CampbellQBFoot· Limited
- ProbableDarren McFaddenRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDeMarcus Van DykeCBKnee· Full
- ProbableJerome BoydSKnee· Full
- ProbableMatt GiordanoSShoulder· Full
- ProbableQuentin GrovesLBQuadricep· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 10:26 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 6:07 | 9 | 45 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:03 | 5 | 36 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 13:32 | 6 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 10:20 | 7 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LV | Q2 7:44 | 10 | 75 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| NE | Q2 2:15 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| LV | Q3 11:07 | 14 | 74 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| NE | Q3 3:21 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 31–13 |
| LV | Q4 13:38 | 8 | 39 | Turnover | 31–13 |
| NE | Q4 10:19 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 31–13 |
| LV | Q4 8:21 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 31–13 |
| NE | Q4 6:38 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 31–13 |
| LV | Q4 4:02 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 31–13 |
| NE | Q4 3:43 | 7 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 31–13 |
| LV | Q4 1:16 | 4 | 99 | Touchdown | 31–19 |
| NE | Q4 0:28 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/30 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 10 | 97 | 9.7 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 9 | 14 | 158 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Matthew Slater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.