Closing spread
NE -14
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutSio MooreLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio SmithDTBack· Limited
- QuestionableCarlos RogersCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableChimdi ChekwaCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMatt McCantsTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMaurice Jones-DrewRBHand· Limited
- QuestionableNick RoachLBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableRod StreaterWRHip· Limited
- ProbableJustin TuckDEIllness· Full
Patriots
- QuestionableAlfonzo DennardCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDon JonesSHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJamie CollinsLBThigh· Limited
- QuestionableMichael BuchananDEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRyan WendellCKnee· Limited
- QuestionableShane VereenRBShoulder· Limited
- DNPJerod MayoLBNot Injury Related
- ProbableDan ConnollyGKnee· Limited
- ProbableJulian EdelmanWRBack· Limited
- ProbableRob GronkowskiTEKnee· Limited
- ProbableSealver SiligaDTHand· Limited
Win probability
- Patriots
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:44 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:47 | 13 | 50 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 4:37 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:36 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 10:57 | 16 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 4:14 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 2:45 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q3 12:52 | 7 | 24 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| NE | Q3 9:39 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 6–10 |
| LV | Q3 6:09 | 8 | 62 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| NE | Q3 2:21 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 9–13 |
| LV | Q4 13:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–13 |
| NE | Q4 11:15 | 12 | 73 | Field goal | 9–16 |
| LV | Q4 6:20 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 9–16 |
| NE | Q4 5:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 9–16 |
| LV | Q4 3:12 | 8 | 36 | Turnover | 9–16 |
| NE | Q4 0:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 9–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/37 | 234 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -7 | -2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 10 | 13 | 84 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.