Closing spread
NE -14
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. NE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/37 | 234 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -7 | -2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 10 | 13 | 84 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.