Closing spread
NE -7
Total
55
Model margin
-0.4est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutChris HoganWRShoulder· DNP
- OutDavid AndrewsCIllness· DNP
- OutMarcus CannonTAnkle· DNP
- OutMatt SlaterWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableCassius MarshDEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDanny AmendolaWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableEric RoweCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableMalcom BrownDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMartellus BennettTEShoulder· Limited
- LimitedAlan BranchDTNeck
Raiders
- DoubtfulDavid AmersonCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableCory JamesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJamize OlawaleRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMarshall NewhouseTHip· Limited
- DNPDonald PennTNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Raiders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:16 | 16 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:09 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 1:47 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:35 | 8 | 51 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 8:55 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q2 5:23 | 11 | 68 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| NE | Q2 0:33 | 4 | 49 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–0 |
| LV | Q3 14:06 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 24–0 |
| NE | Q3 11:01 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 27–0 |
| LV | Q3 7:04 | 7 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 27–0 |
| NE | Q3 4:39 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 30–0 |
| LV | Q3 2:03 | 14 | 85 | Touchdown | 30–8 |
| NE | Q4 11:43 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 33–8 |
| LV | Q4 8:15 | 15 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 33–8 |
| NE | Q4 2:34 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 33–8 |
| LV | Q4 0:16 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 33–8 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/37 | 340 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 9 | 149 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 9 | 66 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| James White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.68
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.