Closing spread
NE -7
Total
55
Model margin
-0.4est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. OAK are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/37 | 340 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 9 | 149 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 9 | 66 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| James White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.68
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.