2025 · Week 1

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

20·13

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+8.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Nothing filed.

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.192EPA / play+0.154
  • 38.6%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.308
  • -0.304EPA / rush-0.089
  • 6.7%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -0.91CPOE+10.94
  • 34.1%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.47
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5LV @ NE17–45NE
2023 · W6NE @ LV17–21RAIDERS
2022 · W15NE @ LV24–30RAIDERS
2020 · W3LV @ NE20–36NE
2017 · W11NE @ OAK33–8NE
2014 · W3OAK @ NE9–16NE
2011 · W4NE @ OAK31–19NE
2008 · W15NE @ OAK49–26NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–NE
LVQ1 15:00671Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 12:1732Punt7–0
LVQ1 10:341055Turnover7–0
NEQ1 6:221277Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 1:023-3Punt7–7
NEQ2 14:091167Missed field goal7–7
LVQ2 9:0734Punt7–7
NEQ2 7:421044Field goal7–10
LVQ2 1:573-6Punt7–10
NEQ2 1:2539Punt7–10
LVQ2 0:39434Missed field goal7–10
NEQ3 15:00636Turnover7–10
LVQ3 12:14556Touchdown14–10
NEQ3 9:393-1Punt14–10
LVQ3 8:40420Punt14–10
NEQ3 6:2533Punt14–10
LVQ3 4:27662Field goal17–10
NEQ3 0:52624Punt17–10
LVQ4 13:331166Field goal20–10
NEQ4 6:46521Punt20–10
LVQ4 4:48631Punt20–10
NEQ4 1:48954Field goal20–13
LVQ4 0:1900End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith24/3436211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty19382.01
Geno Smith2105.00
Zamir White382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers581030
Jakobi Meyers810970
Tre Tucker23541
Dont'e Thornton Jr.24450
Michael Mayer44380
Jack Bech11230
Ashton Jeanty2220
Alex Bachman0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye30/4628711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
TreVeyon Henderson5275.40
Rhamondre Stevenson7152.10
Drake Maye4112.80
DeMario Douglas144.00
Antonio Gibson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kayshon Boutte681030
Hunter Henry48660
Stefon Diggs67570
TreVeyon Henderson66240
Rhamondre Stevenson23120
Kyle Williams11120
Austin Hooper11100
Mack Hollins1230
Drake Maye1120
Antonio Gibson0100
DeMario Douglas27-21

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%5.4%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

6.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.4%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.68