Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+8.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play+0.154
- 38.6%Success rate48.2%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.304EPA / rush-0.089
- 6.7%Explosive rate10.5%
- -0.91CPOE+10.94
- 34.1%Third-down rate43.3%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.25Points / drive2.47
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. NE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 24/34 | 362 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 19 | 38 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 5 | 8 | 103 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 8 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Bachman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 30/46 | 287 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte | 6 | 8 | 103 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 7 | -2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.68