Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:23 | 9 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:23 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 8:58 | 3 | 35 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:57 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NE | Q1 6:51 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:43 | 4 | 66 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NE | Q1 1:34 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| LV | Q2 13:12 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 34–14 |
| NE | Q2 12:59 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 35–14 |
| LV | Q2 12:46 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 35–14 |
| NE | Q2 10:05 | 8 | 37 | Turnover | 35–14 |
| LV | Q2 6:25 | 6 | 50 | Turnover | 35–14 |
| NE | Q2 2:54 | 8 | 69 | End of half | 35–14 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 42–14 |
| LV | Q3 11:36 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 42–14 |
| NE | Q3 9:20 | 6 | 0 | Punt | 42–14 |
| LV | Q3 7:09 | 5 | 59 | Touchdown | 42–20 |
| NE | Q3 5:01 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 42–20 |
| LV | Q3 3:23 | 8 | 46 | Punt | 42–20 |
| NE | Q3 0:06 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 42–20 |
| LV | Q4 12:17 | 10 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 42–20 |
| NE | Q4 7:37 | 3 | 57 | Touchdown | 49–20 |
| LV | Q4 6:09 | 12 | 52 | Touchdown | 49–26 |
| NE | Q4 1:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 49–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 18/30 | 218 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 14 | 117 | 8.4 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 12 | 97 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.46
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.