Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. OAK are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 18/30 | 218 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 14 | 117 | 8.4 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 12 | 97 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.46
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.