2022 · Week 15

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

24·30

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -1

Total

45

Model margin

-0.2est.

LV perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.047EPA / play+0.009
  • 41.1%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.057
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.071
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +0.93CPOE-2.03
  • 35.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.10
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.7 points. LV are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5LV @ NE17–45NE
2025 · W1LV @ NE20–13RAIDERS
2023 · W6NE @ LV17–21RAIDERS
2020 · W3LV @ NE20–36NE
2017 · W11NE @ OAK33–8NE
2014 · W3OAK @ NE9–16NE
2011 · W4NE @ OAK31–19NE
2008 · W15NE @ OAK49–26NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–LV
LVQ1 15:001252Field goal0–3
NEQ1 8:26413Punt0–3
LVQ1 7:01521Punt0–3
NEQ1 4:101472Field goal3–3
LVQ2 11:511286Touchdown3–10
NEQ2 5:1831Punt3–10
LVQ2 3:4932Punt3–10
NEQ2 2:07426Punt3–10
LVQ2 0:27415Touchdown3–17
NEQ2 0:0400End of half3–17
NEQ3 15:00621Punt3–17
LVQ3 12:5024Opp touchdown10–17
LVQ3 12:07623Punt10–17
NEQ3 7:541169Field goal13–17
LVQ3 1:213-5Punt13–17
NEQ4 14:4969Field goal16–17
LVQ4 12:52615Punt16–17
NEQ4 8:2234Punt16–17
LVQ4 7:15314Punt16–17
NEQ4 5:10376Touchdown24–17
LVQ4 3:4330Punt24–17
NEQ4 3:1235Punt24–17
LVQ4 2:11981Touchdown24–24
NEQ4 0:32623Opp touchdown24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones13/3111200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson191729.11
Pierre Strong4256.30
Kevin Harris5193.80
Mac Jones4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers26470
Jonnu Smith23240
Tyquan Thornton14210
Pierre Strong33120
Hunter Henry2490
Nelson Agholor1630
Kendrick Bourne0100
Rhamondre Stevenson23-40

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr20/3823131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs22934.20
Zamir White144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole22501
Darren Waller33481
Mack Hollins48401
Davante Adams49280
Foster Moreau22200
Josh Jacobs23170
Ameer Abdullah22140
Hunter Renfrow13140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin-0.18