Closing spread
LV -1
Total
45
Model margin
-0.2est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.009
- 41.1%Success rate43.4%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.071
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.9%
- +0.93CPOE-2.03
- 35.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.54Points / drive2.10
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. LV are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 13/31 | 112 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 19 | 172 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Pierre Strong | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Harris | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 20/38 | 231 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 22 | 93 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin-0.18