Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-3.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Raidersedge mapPatriots
- -0.029EPA / play-0.092
- 43.1%Success rate40.8%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.451
- 7.7%Explosive rate1.4%
- +0.71CPOE+5.97
- 41.7%Third-down rate31.3%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.44Points / drive1.11
- 3.1%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. NE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.00
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.78