2026 · Week 5

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Kirk Cousins

17·45

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.052
  • 43.1%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback+0.215
  • -0.252EPA / rush-0.200
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -1.41CPOE+7.12
  • 40.6%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 55.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.49Points / drive2.06
  • 1.3%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1LV @ NE20–13RAIDERS
2023 · W6NE @ LV17–21RAIDERS
2022 · W15NE @ LV24–30RAIDERS
2020 · W3LV @ NE20–36NE
2017 · W11NE @ OAK33–8NE
2014 · W3OAK @ NE9–16NE
2011 · W4NE @ OAK31–19NE
2008 · W15NE @ OAK49–26NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–NE
LVQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:56655Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 11:23766Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 8:191371Touchdown7–14
LVQ1 1:3049Punt7–14
NEQ2 14:431052Punt7–14
LVQ2 10:511152Punt7–14
NEQ2 5:12217Turnover7–14
LVQ2 4:2757Missed field goal7–14
NEQ2 1:52561Touchdown7–21
LVQ2 0:241-11End of half7–21
NEQ3 15:00661Touchdown7–28
LVQ3 12:5835Punt7–28
NEQ3 11:2648Punt7–28
LVQ3 9:48424Field goal10–28
NEQ3 8:301182Touchdown10–35
LVQ3 3:10422Turnover10–35
NEQ3 1:55657Field goal10–38
LVQ4 14:12874Touchdown17–38
NEQ4 10:49844Touchdown17–45
LVQ4 6:061054Turnover on downs17–45
NEQ4 2:34132End of half17–45

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/2824310
Fernando Mendoza6/84800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty10272.70
Dylan Laube492.31
Mike Washington Jr.155.00
Fernando Mendoza133.00
Tre Tucker2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers8101101
Ashton Jeanty36500
Cody White24440
Tre Tucker45410
Dylan Laube33160
Ian Thomas1190
Deven Thompkins1180
Malik Benson1460
Mike Washington Jr.1150
Michael Mayer1120

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye26/3437440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson13644.91
Corey Kiner6528.70
Drake Maye7253.61
TreVeyon Henderson4225.50
Efton Chism III122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Williams33911
DeMario Douglas45652
Efton Chism III56570
Eli Raridon55570
Hunter Henry34441
Rhamondre Stevenson33210
Romeo Doubs13160
TreVeyon Henderson11160
Corey Kiner1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.34