2009 · CON

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

17·30

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -8

Total

40

Model margin

+1.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapColts
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.127
  • 39.7%Success rate48.9%
  • -0.151EPA / dropback+0.241
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.077
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -5.62CPOE+4.60
  • 37.4%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.29
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–IND
INDQ1 15:0045Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:501045Missed field goal0–0
INDQ1 6:403-2Punt0–0
NYJQ1 5:0934Punt0–0
INDQ1 3:37787Field goal0–3
NYJQ2 14:56180Touchdown7–3
INDQ2 14:451274Field goal7–6
NYJQ2 8:44777Touchdown14–6
INDQ2 4:5336Turnover14–6
NYJQ2 3:4034Field goal17–6
INDQ2 2:11480Touchdown17–13
NYJQ2 1:1327End of half17–13
NYJQ3 15:00739Missed field goal17–13
INDQ3 11:34857Touchdown17–20
NYJQ3 8:03736Punt17–20
INDQ3 4:24421Punt17–20
NYJQ3 2:09932Punt17–20
INDQ4 12:25765Touchdown17–27
NYJQ4 8:5235Punt17–27
INDQ4 8:021265Field goal17–30
NYJQ4 2:29315Turnover17–30
INDQ4 2:0533Punt17–30
NYJQ4 1:06445End of half17–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez17/3025721
Brad Smith1/14500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones16422.60
Shonn Greene10414.10
Mark Sanchez210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery571020
Braylon Edwards251001
Dustin Keller67631
Thomas Jones23280
Brad Smith2370
David Clowney0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning26/3937730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai16805.00
Donald Brown6183.00
Mike Hart133.00
Peyton Manning100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon11151511
Austin Collie791231
Reggie Wayne35550
Dallas Clark48351
Joseph Addai11130
Gijon Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.36