Closing spread
IND -8
Total
40
Model margin
+1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.127
- 39.7%Success rate48.9%
- -0.151EPA / dropback+0.241
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.077
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- -5.62CPOE+4.60
- 37.4%Third-down rate48.9%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.61Points / drive2.29
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 17/30 | 257 | 2 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 1/1 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 16 | 42 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 7 | 102 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 5 | 100 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 6 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/39 | 377 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 11 | 15 | 151 | 1 |
| Austin Collie | 7 | 9 | 123 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.36