Closing spread
NE -17
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutDemorrio WilliamsLBGroin
- OutMatt CasselQBright Hand· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableBrandon CarrCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon FlowersCBBack· Limited
- QuestionableGlenn DorseyDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJon McGrawSShoulder· Limited
Patriots
- OutBrandon SpikesLBKnee· DNP
- OutDane FletcherLBThumb· DNP
- DoubtfulDevin McCourtyCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableBenJarvus Green-EllisRBToe· Limited
- QuestionableDan ConnollyGGroin· Limited
- QuestionableGary GuytonLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJames IhedigboSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJeff TarpinianLBIllness· Limited
- QuestionableKevin FaulkRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableKyle ArringtonCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableMatt SlaterWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableNate SolderTConcussion· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick ChungSFoot· Limited
- QuestionableSebastian VollmerTBack· Limited
- QuestionableShaun EllisDERib· Limited
- QuestionableTaylor PriceWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableBrian WatersGKnee· Limited
- ProbableWes WelkerWRKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.193
- 38.8%Success rate51.2%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.149EPA / rush+0.019
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.61CPOE+3.92
- 35.7%Third-down rate46.4%
- 38.2%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.06Points / drive2.61
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:38 | 7 | 44 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 8:48 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 6:42 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 1:30 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 14:49 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 12:03 | 5 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 9:30 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 7:36 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 4:18 | 6 | 46 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 2:01 | 7 | 56 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 3–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| KC | Q3 10:27 | 3 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 3–24 |
| KC | Q3 9:24 | 9 | 35 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| NE | Q3 4:47 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| KC | Q4 15:00 | 10 | 69 | Turnover | 3–27 |
| NE | Q4 10:50 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–27 |
| KC | Q4 9:38 | 8 | 15 | Turnover on downs | 3–27 |
| NE | Q4 6:32 | 15 | 67 | Touchdown | 3–34 |
| KC | Q4 1:01 | 2 | 22 | End of half | 3–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Palko | 24/37 | 230 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jeremy Horne | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 7 | 9 | 87 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 6 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Horne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/27 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 20 | 81 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 7 | 96 | 2 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.53
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.68