Closing spread
NE -17
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.193
- 38.8%Success rate51.2%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.149EPA / rush+0.019
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.61CPOE+3.92
- 35.7%Third-down rate46.4%
- 38.2%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.06Points / drive2.61
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Palko | 24/37 | 230 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jeremy Horne | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 7 | 9 | 87 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 6 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Horne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/27 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 20 | 81 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 7 | 96 | 2 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.53
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.68