2020 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

3·27

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -12.5

Total

49

Model margin

+7.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.109
  • 44.2%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.125
  • -0.122EPA / rush+0.093
  • 6.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +0.03CPOE-0.32
  • 37.1%Third-down rate49.8%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.64
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:47552Field goal0–3
CINQ1 10:40638Turnover on downs0–3
BALQ1 7:591562Touchdown0–10
CINQ1 0:4030Turnover0–10
BALQ1 0:20316Touchdown0–17
CINQ2 14:56925Turnover0–17
BALQ2 9:3049Turnover on downs0–17
CINQ2 7:5246Punt0–17
BALQ2 6:06514Punt0–17
CINQ2 3:4334Punt0–17
BALQ2 2:00543Turnover0–17
CINQ2 1:1334Punt0–17
BALQ2 0:51634Missed field goal0–17
BALQ3 15:0038Punt0–17
CINQ3 13:21411Punt0–17
BALQ3 10:50748Punt0–17
CINQ3 8:2134Punt0–17
BALQ3 6:08644Field goal0–20
CINQ3 2:361010Punt0–20
BALQ4 13:0333Punt0–20
CINQ4 11:23530Opp touchdown0–27
CINQ4 8:211355Field goal3–27
BALQ4 0:3200End of half3–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow19/3018301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon24592.50
Joe Burrow3103.30
Mike Thomas111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins48620
Tyler Boyd46420
Joe Mixon68350
Drew Sample22220
Auden Tate11120
Mike Thomas1160
Giovani Bernard1240
A.J. Green0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson19/3718021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram11575.20
Devin Duvernay14242.00
J.K. Dobbins13434.00
Gus Edwards7253.60
Lamar Jackson231.50
Marquise Brown111.00
Robert Griffin III1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown610771
Mark Andrews69561
J.K. Dobbins33210
Devin Duvernay22170
Patrick Ricard1270
Nick Boyle1220
Willie Snead0300
Gus Edwards0300
Miles Boykin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.46