Closing spread
BAL -12.5
Total
49
Model margin
+7.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.109
- 44.2%Success rate45.2%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.122EPA / rush+0.093
- 6.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- +0.03CPOE-0.32
- 37.1%Third-down rate49.8%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 1.87Points / drive2.64
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 19/30 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 24 | 59 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 6 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/37 | 180 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 42 | 42.0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.46