Closing spread
KC -11
Total
54.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.177
- 47.4%Success rate50.2%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.288
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.056
- 10.3%Explosive rate11.0%
- +2.18CPOE+2.60
- 45.5%Third-down rate49.5%
- 59.9%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 2.49Points / drive2.85
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 22/31 | 347 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 23 | 77 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Devontae Booker | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ruggs III | 2 | 3 | 118 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 2 | 67 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Rico Gafford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 22/43 | 340 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 12 | 108 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Keizer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.53