Closing spread
DAL -7.5
Total
52
Model margin
+5.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.029
- 42.1%Success rate46.1%
- -0.051EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- -2.04CPOE-1.42
- 35.1%Third-down rate41.5%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.57Points / drive1.87
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 20/33 | 222 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 8 | 11 | 129 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 14/21 | 166 | 0 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 9/11 | 111 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1/1 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 19 | 91 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 11 | 124 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 4 | 73 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.61