2020 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

34·37

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -7.5

Total

52

Model margin

+5.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.029
  • 42.1%Success rate46.1%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -2.04CPOE-1.42
  • 35.1%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.87
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:001054Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 11:20970Touchdown7–3
DALQ1 6:53315Opp touchdown14–3
DALQ1 5:4832Punt14–3
NYGQ1 4:211138Field goal17–3
DALQ2 13:301570Touchdown17–10
NYGQ2 6:3144Opp touchdown17–17
NYGQ2 5:00948Field goal20–17
DALQ2 0:51664Touchdown20–24
NYGQ2 0:1610End of half20–24
NYGQ3 15:001139Field goal23–24
DALQ3 9:251079Touchdown23–31
NYGQ3 5:0344Punt23–31
DALQ3 2:5438Punt23–31
NYGQ3 1:20866Field goal26–31
DALQ4 11:0910Turnover26–31
NYGQ4 10:55517Touchdown34–31
DALQ4 8:461138Field goal34–34
NYGQ4 1:56515Punt34–34
DALQ4 0:52472Field goal34–37

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones20/3322200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman17603.51
Wayne Gallman5244.80
Evan Engram294.51
Daniel Jones2-7-3.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton8111290
Golden Tate45420
Devonta Freeman23270
Evan Engram12160
Kaden Smith1170
Dion Lewis2410
Wayne Gallman2200
Damion Ratley0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott14/2116601
Andy Dalton9/1111100
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1/11110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott19914.82
Tony Pollard6305.00
Dak Prescott273.50
Andy Dalton100.00
Amari Cooper1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb8111240
Michael Gallup44730
Amari Cooper24230
Cedrick Wilson Jr.44220
Ezekiel Elliott12140
Blake Bell11130
Dak Prescott11111
Dalton Schultz1360
Tony Pollard2320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.61