Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
50
Model margin
+1.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.035
- 46.9%Success rate44.0%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.134
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.55CPOE-0.90
- 45.5%Third-down rate42.1%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
- 2.32Points / drive2.12
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 10/18 | 119 | 1 | 2 |
| Case Keenum | 5/10 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14/22 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 20 | 101 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 4 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| James Washington | 4 | 7 | 68 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.78