2020 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

7·38

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

50

Model margin

+1.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.035
  • 46.9%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.134
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +2.55CPOE-0.90
  • 45.5%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.12
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:001058Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 10:3537Opp touchdown0–10
CLEQ1 8:5831Punt0–10
PITQ1 7:143-11Punt0–10
CLEQ1 5:30521Punt0–10
PITQ1 2:3735Punt0–10
CLEQ1 1:04517Punt0–10
PITQ2 14:05773Touchdown0–17
CLEQ2 10:28520Turnover0–17
PITQ2 7:41545Touchdown0–24
CLEQ2 5:431065Touchdown7–24
PITQ2 1:013-2Punt7–24
CLEQ2 0:33419Punt7–24
PITQ2 0:0200End of half7–24
CLEQ3 15:003-11Punt7–24
PITQ3 12:48925Punt7–24
CLEQ3 7:4148Turnover on downs7–24
PITQ3 5:55828Touchdown7–31
CLEQ3 0:52739Turnover on downs7–31
PITQ4 13:43955Touchdown7–38
CLEQ4 8:08526Turnover on downs7–38
PITQ4 6:0745Punt7–38
CLEQ4 3:1738Punt7–38
PITQ4 1:4400End of half7–38

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield10/1811912
Case Keenum5/104600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt13403.10
Dontrell Hilliard4297.30
Baker Mayfield155.00
D'Ernest Johnson410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper56520
Jarvis Landry35400
Odell Beckham Jr.23250
Kareem Hunt23170
Rashard Higgins12131
Harrison Bryant12110
David Njoku1370
D'Ernest Johnson0100
Donovan Peoples-Jones0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger14/2216210
Mason Rudolph1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner201015.01
Benny Snell6172.81
Chase Claypool273.51
Ben Roethlisberger351.70
Anthony McFarland320.70
Mason Rudolph3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chase Claypool44740
James Washington47681
Eric Ebron2490
JuJu Smith-Schuster2460
Anthony McFarland1160
Benny Snell1140
James Conner1110
Ray-Ray McCloud0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.78