Closing spread
LA -2
Total
51
Model margin
+2.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.010
- 44.6%Success rate45.8%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.37CPOE-1.74
- 44.2%Third-down rate39.6%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 1.76Points / drive2.03
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/38 | 198 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 14 | 88 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 10 | 29 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 9 | 11 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 23/33 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 7 | 10 | 109 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
38.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04