2020 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

16·24

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

LA -2

Total

51

Model margin

+2.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge map49ers
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.010
  • 44.6%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.106
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.37CPOE-1.74
  • 44.2%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.03
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SF
SFQ1 15:00676Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 11:39519Punt0–7
SFQ1 9:55618Punt0–7
LAQ1 6:2732Punt0–7
SFQ1 5:221193Touchdown0–14
LAQ2 14:141169Touchdown6–14
SFQ2 9:031481Touchdown6–21
LAQ2 1:47312Punt6–21
SFQ2 1:09723End of half6–21
LAQ3 15:00652Field goal9–21
SFQ3 12:063-1Punt9–21
LAQ3 10:3041Punt9–21
SFQ3 9:2337Punt9–21
LAQ3 7:201043Turnover9–21
SFQ3 2:33423Punt9–21
LAQ3 0:19530Punt9–21
SFQ4 13:22728Punt9–21
LAQ4 9:2134Punt9–21
SFQ4 8:41620Field goal9–24
LAQ4 5:261079Touchdown16–24
SFQ4 3:24424End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff19/3819821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson14886.30
Robert Woods2115.50
Jared Goff11010.00
Malcolm Brown242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Higbee34560
Josh Reynolds25451
Robert Woods410291
Gerald Everett34270
Malcolm Brown34180
Cooper Kupp39110
Van Jefferson1180

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo23/3326830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert17653.80
JaMycal Hasty9374.10
Jerick McKinnon6183.00
Jimmy Garoppolo482.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle7101091
Deebo Samuel Sr.66661
Kendrick Bourne23440
Brandon Aiyuk23121
Raheem Mostert22110
Jerick McKinnon23100
Trent Taylor1280
JaMycal Hasty0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

38.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.04