Closing spread
MIA -9.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.026
- 40.9%Success rate46.8%
- -0.098EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.124
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- -2.07CPOE+1.23
- 34.4%Third-down rate38.5%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.24Points / drive1.99
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/44 | 186 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breshad Perriman | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 13 | 48 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18/27 | 191 | 3 | 2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2/2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Shaheen | 3 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| Jakeem Grant | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.46