2020 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Joe Flacco

0·24

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -9.5

Total

46

Model margin

+4.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.116EPA / play+0.026
  • 40.9%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.098EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.124
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -2.07CPOE+1.23
  • 34.4%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 41.2%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.99
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
NYJQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
MIAQ1 14:0133Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:3635Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:39866Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 6:551251Punt0–7
MIAQ2 15:00750Touchdown0–14
NYJQ2 11:163-4Punt0–14
MIAQ2 8:413-8Punt0–14
NYJQ2 7:1234Turnover0–14
MIAQ2 6:1730Punt0–14
NYJQ2 4:2034Punt0–14
MIAQ2 2:34348Touchdown0–21
NYJQ2 1:5338Punt0–21
MIAQ2 1:05441Turnover0–21
NYJQ2 0:22422End of half0–21
MIAQ3 15:0037Punt0–21
NYJQ3 13:203-4Punt0–21
MIAQ3 11:4138Punt0–21
NYJQ3 9:23417Punt0–21
MIAQ3 7:34753Field goal0–24
NYJQ3 3:49551Missed field goal0–24
MIAQ3 1:0538Punt0–24
NYJQ4 14:48419Punt0–24
MIAQ4 12:5610Turnover0–24
NYJQ4 12:45819Punt0–24
MIAQ4 8:3737Punt0–24
NYJQ4 6:531368Turnover on downs0–24
MIAQ4 2:27519End of half0–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/4418601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore11464.20
Ty Johnson34214.00
La'Mical Perine7273.90
Joe Flacco100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breshad Perriman48620
Jamison Crowder713480
Frank Gore44240
Braxton Berrios13180
Ryan Griffin23170
La'Mical Perine2390
Jeff Smith1480
Ty Johnson0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick18/2719132
Tua Tagovailoa2/2900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin18915.10
Matt Breida6152.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Shaheen33511
Jakeem Grant44480
DeVante Parker38350
Myles Gaskin44350
Preston Williams23181
Matt Breida2270
Durham Smythe1241
Patrick Laird1120
Mike Gesicki0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.46