2020 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kyle Allen

19·20

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NYG -2

Total

42.5

Model margin

-4.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.057
  • 42.1%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.067
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -1.32CPOE-2.04
  • 40.2%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.57
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:001244Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 8:54848Field goal0–3
WASQ1 3:2320Turnover0–3
NYGQ1 2:31327Touchdown0–10
WASQ1 1:361070Field goal3–10
NYGQ2 10:50767Field goal3–13
WASQ2 6:151460Touchdown10–13
NYGQ2 0:1300End of half10–13
NYGQ3 15:00622Punt10–13
WASQ3 11:3336Punt10–13
NYGQ3 10:051564Turnover10–13
WASQ3 0:511455Field goal13–13
NYGQ4 8:56615Punt13–13
WASQ4 6:57722Opp touchdown13–20
WASQ4 3:291080Touchdown19–20
NYGQ4 0:3600End of half19–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen31/4228021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.D. McKissic8415.10
Antonio Gibson9303.30
Kyle Allen284.00
Peyton Barber461.50
Isaiah Wright111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin712740
Dontrelle Inman55450
J.D. McKissic66430
Logan Thomas34421
Isaiah Wright45250
Antonio Gibson45250
Cam Sims11221
Peyton Barber1140
Antonio Gandy-Golden0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones12/1911211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones77410.60
Devonta Freeman18613.40
Darius Slayton1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton24411
Evan Engram23300
Kaden Smith33150
Golden Tate11110
Dion Lewis11100
C.J. Board1380
Austin Mack1110
Devonta Freeman12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.4%

Expected total

39.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.00