2020 · Week 6 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
NYG -2
Total
42.5
Model margin
-4.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.057
- 42.1%Success rate42.1%
- -0.063EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.32CPOE-2.04
- 40.2%Third-down rate35.1%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.76Points / drive1.57
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 31/42 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 12 | 74 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Isaiah Wright | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Antonio Gandy-Golden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 12/19 | 112 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 7 | 74 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Austin Mack | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.4%
Expected total
39.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.00