Closing spread
CLE -4.5
Total
50
Model margin
-1.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.041
- 46.9%Success rate44.2%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.122
- 11.2%Explosive rate6.5%
- +2.55CPOE+0.03
- 45.5%Third-down rate37.1%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.32Points / drive1.87
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/28 | 297 | 5 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1/1 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Higgins | 6 | 6 | 110 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 4 | 5 | 56 | 2 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 35/47 | 406 | 3 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 11 | 13 | 101 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 7 | 13 | 82 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 5 | 71 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.45