2020 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

37·34

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CLE -4.5

Total

50

Model margin

-1.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.041
  • 46.9%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.122
  • 11.2%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +2.55CPOE+0.03
  • 45.5%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.87
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CINQ1 15:001070Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 9:1626Turnover0–0
CINQ1 8:21414Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 6:47416Punt0–7
CINQ1 4:566-4Turnover0–7
CLEQ1 3:0048Field goal3–7
CINQ1 1:211062Field goal3–10
CLEQ2 11:091170Touchdown10–10
CINQ2 3:391085Touchdown10–17
CLEQ2 0:1500End of half10–17
CLEQ3 15:00975Touchdown17–17
CINQ3 9:321276Field goal17–20
CLEQ3 2:51974Touchdown24–20
CINQ4 13:131280Touchdown24–27
CLEQ4 8:45775Touchdown31–27
CINQ4 4:531085Touchdown31–34
CLEQ4 1:06475Touchdown37–34
CINQ4 0:1110End of half37–34

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/2829751
Jarvis Landry1/11900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt18764.20
Jarvis Landry242.00
D'Ernest Johnson133.00
Baker Mayfield1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashard Higgins661100
Harrison Bryant45562
Donovan Peoples-Jones33561
Jarvis Landry56480
Kareem Hunt34261
David Njoku23201
Odell Beckham Jr.0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow35/4740631
Tyler Boyd1/11600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard13372.80
Joe Burrow6345.71
Tee Higgins177.00
Samaje Perine133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd11131011
A.J. Green713820
Tee Higgins55711
Giovani Bernard55591
Mike Thomas23540
Drew Sample56520
Samaje Perine1130
Auden Tate0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.45