2020 · Week 7 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.051
- 46.1%Success rate42.1%
- -0.004EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.030
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.42CPOE-1.32
- 41.5%Third-down rate40.2%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.87Points / drive1.76
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 9/19 | 75 | 0 | 1 |
| Ben DiNucci | 2/3 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ben DiNucci | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 15/25 | 194 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 20 | 128 | 6.4 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 11 | 90 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Temarrick Hemingway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
39.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.13
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.33