2020 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Andy Dalton

3·25

Commanders

Washington

QB Kyle Allen

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DAL -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.051
  • 46.1%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback-0.063
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.030
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.42CPOE-1.32
  • 41.5%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.76
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
WASQ1 15:001170Turnover on downs0–0
DALQ1 9:536-6Safety0–2
WASQ1 7:45763Touchdown0–9
DALQ1 3:4837Field goal3–9
WASQ1 1:5245Punt3–9
DALQ1 0:031036Turnover on downs3–9
WASQ2 10:40255Touchdown3–15
DALQ2 9:5453Punt3–15
WASQ2 7:131160Touchdown3–22
DALQ2 3:081368Turnover3–22
WASQ2 0:3300End of half3–22
DALQ3 15:0054Punt3–22
WASQ3 12:56935Punt3–22
DALQ3 7:13822Punt3–22
WASQ3 3:011063Field goal3–25
DALQ4 13:23411Punt3–25
WASQ4 11:41936Missed field goal3–25
DALQ4 4:393-3Punt3–25
WASQ4 2:44312End of half3–25

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton9/197501
Ben DiNucci2/33900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott12453.80
Andy Dalton3165.30
Tony Pollard8162.00
Amari Cooper155.00
CeeDee Lamb111.00
Ben DiNucci100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper77800
Dalton Schultz24220
Ezekiel Elliott1260
Tony Pollard1160
Michael Gallup0200
CeeDee Lamb0500

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen15/2519420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson201286.41
J.D. McKissic5357.00
Peyton Barber10343.40
Kyle Allen4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin711901
Logan Thomas44601
Cam Sims11220
J.D. McKissic22160
Jeremy Sprinkle1160
Temarrick Hemingway0100
Antonio Gibson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.7%

Expected total

39.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.13
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+6.33