2020 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

21·22

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.055
  • 42.1%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -2.04CPOE-4.93
  • 35.1%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.61
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 8:45624Punt0–7
PHIQ1 6:033-7Punt6–7
NYGQ1 4:20139Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 4:131383Field goal7–10
NYGQ2 13:28828Turnover7–10
PHIQ2 10:031036Turnover7–10
NYGQ2 4:46431Punt7–10
PHIQ2 1:5334Punt7–10
NYGQ2 0:5723Turnover7–10
PHIQ2 0:43531Missed field goal7–10
NYGQ2 0:1500End of half7–10
NYGQ3 15:0037Punt7–10
PHIQ3 13:0739Punt7–10
NYGQ3 10:543-1Punt7–10
PHIQ3 9:5032Punt7–10
NYGQ3 8:51586Touchdown14–10
PHIQ3 6:4531Punt14–10
NYGQ3 5:5235Punt14–10
PHIQ3 3:54866Turnover on downs14–10
NYGQ4 14:071675Touchdown21–10
PHIQ4 6:17668Touchdown21–16
NYGQ4 4:38527Punt21–16
PHIQ4 2:02975Touchdown21–22
NYGQ4 0:4032Turnover21–22
PHIQ4 0:2100End of half21–22

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones20/3018721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones49223.00
Wayne Gallman10343.41
Dion Lewis3237.70
Devonta Freeman382.70
Evan Engram231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard68591
Evan Engram69460
Golden Tate12391
Darius Slayton23230
Wayne Gallman55200
Devonta Freeman0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/4335921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Boston Scott12463.80
Carson Wentz7142.01
Jason Huntley2136.50
DeSean Jackson11212.00
Corey Clement294.50
Jalen Hurts221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Richard Rodgers68850
Travis Fulgham511730
John Hightower12590
Boston Scott35461
Greg Ward56421
DeSean Jackson35340
Corey Clement11120
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside1180
Hakeem Butler0100
Jason Huntley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

40.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.54