Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.055
- 42.1%Success rate41.8%
- -0.051EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- -2.04CPOE-4.93
- 35.1%Third-down rate36.0%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.57Points / drive1.61
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 20/30 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 92 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 6 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/43 | 359 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Scott | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jason Huntley | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Rodgers | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Travis Fulgham | 5 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| John Hightower | 1 | 2 | 59 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Greg Ward | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Hakeem Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Huntley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.54