2020 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Ben DiNucci

9·23

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

PHI -10

Total

43

Model margin

+1.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.055
  • 46.1%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.42CPOE-4.93
  • 41.5%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.61
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:00847Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 10:1130Turnover3–0
DALQ1 8:3658Turnover3–0
PHIQ1 5:481083Touchdown3–7
DALQ1 0:023-3Punt3–7
PHIQ2 14:01616Turnover3–7
DALQ2 11:30515Field goal6–7
PHIQ2 9:46832Punt6–7
DALQ2 5:29414Punt6–7
PHIQ2 3:1442Turnover6–7
DALQ2 2:143-3Punt6–7
PHIQ2 1:4349Turnover on downs6–7
DALQ2 0:29414Field goal9–7
PHIQ2 0:0600End of half9–7
PHIQ3 15:00711Turnover9–7
DALQ3 12:04935Missed field goal9–7
PHIQ3 6:131053Touchdown9–15
DALQ3 1:541242Turnover on downs9–15
PHIQ4 12:4434Punt9–15
DALQ4 11:181140Opp touchdown9–21
DALQ4 5:184-7Safety9–23
PHIQ4 3:55613Turnover on downs9–23
DALQ4 1:551163End of half9–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben DiNucci21/4018000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott19633.30
Tony Pollard7405.70
Ben DiNucci5224.40
CeeDee Lamb11919.00
Cedrick Wilson Jr.2-11-5.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup712610
Dalton Schultz68530
CeeDee Lamb45270
Tony Pollard22240
Ezekiel Elliott12100
Amari Cooper1550
Noah Brown0200
Cedrick Wilson Jr.0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz15/2712322
Jalen Hurts1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Boston Scott15704.70
Corey Clement5244.80
Carson Wentz4174.30
Jalen Reagor166.00
Greg Ward122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Fulgham67781
Jalen Reagor36161
Dallas Goedert11150
Greg Ward35100
Boston Scott2290
Corey Clement1240
John Hightower0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

40.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.26
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.89