Closing spread
PHI -10
Total
43
Model margin
+1.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.055
- 46.1%Success rate41.8%
- -0.004EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.42CPOE-4.93
- 41.5%Third-down rate36.0%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.87Points / drive1.61
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben DiNucci | 21/40 | 180 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ben DiNucci | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | -11 | -5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 7 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 15/27 | 123 | 2 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Scott | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Fulgham | 6 | 7 | 78 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| John Hightower | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
40.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.26
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.89