2020 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

28·22

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

GB -5.5

Total

47

Model margin

+4.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.221
  • 49.1%Success rate50.7%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.353
  • -0.025EPA / rush+0.025
  • 11.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +4.45CPOE+6.90
  • 41.2%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 74.1%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.98
  • 2.1%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:001375Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 7:011078Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 0:471776Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 6:531262Touchdown14–14
GBQ2 0:3118End of half14–14
MINQ3 15:001265Touchdown21–14
GBQ3 10:00748Turnover on downs21–14
MINQ3 7:58463Touchdown28–14
GBQ3 5:521251Punt28–14
MINQ4 14:49633Punt28–14
GBQ4 11:06732Turnover on downs28–14
MINQ4 8:1537Punt28–14
GBQ4 5:471179Touchdown28–22
MINQ4 2:42516Punt28–22
GBQ4 0:47431Turnover28–22

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins11/1416010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook301635.43
Alexander Mattison382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalvin Cook23631
Adam Thielen34270
Justin Jefferson34260
Chad Beebe11160
Irv Smith11160
Kyle Rudolph11120

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/4129130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams16754.70
AJ Dillon5214.20
Aaron Rodgers294.50
Marquez Valdes-Scantling144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Tonyan57790
Davante Adams711533
Jace Sternberger34460
Jamaal Williams66270
Malik Taylor11260
Marquez Valdes-Scantling11190
AJ Dillon11160
Equanimeous St. Brown13120
Tyler Ervin1370
Darrius Shepherd1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.61