Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.221
- 49.1%Success rate50.7%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.353
- -0.025EPA / rush+0.025
- 11.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- +4.45CPOE+6.90
- 41.2%Third-down rate50.7%
- 74.1%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
- 2.30Points / drive2.98
- 2.1%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 11/14 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 30 | 163 | 5.4 | 3 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 3 | 63 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Chad Beebe | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/41 | 291 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Tonyan | 5 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 53 | 3 |
| Jace Sternberger | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 6 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Malik Taylor | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Darrius Shepherd | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.46
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.61