2020 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

28·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

44

Model margin

+4.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.109
  • 44.0%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.125
  • -0.134EPA / rush+0.093
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.90CPOE-0.32
  • 42.1%Third-down rate49.8%
  • 70.3%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.64
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
BALQ1 15:0034Opp touchdown7–0
BALQ1 14:061065Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 8:4449Turnover7–7
BALQ1 7:50535Turnover7–7
PITQ1 5:23514Punt7–7
BALQ1 2:1556Punt7–7
PITQ2 14:51518Punt7–7
BALQ2 12:42980Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 7:24723Punt7–14
BALQ2 3:441464Field goal7–17
PITQ3 15:00424Punt7–17
BALQ3 14:0910Turnover7–17
PITQ3 14:04221Touchdown14–17
BALQ3 13:2136Punt14–17
PITQ3 11:481157Touchdown21–17
BALQ3 5:38625Punt21–17
PITQ3 2:2531Punt21–17
BALQ3 0:54963Touchdown21–24
PITQ4 11:56945Touchdown28–24
BALQ4 7:291069Turnover28–24
PITQ4 1:5739Punt28–24
BALQ4 0:52640End of half28–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3218220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner15473.11
Anthony McFarland111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster78670
Eric Ebron45481
Chase Claypool59421
James Conner33130
Ray-Ray McCloud1160
Diontae Johnson1360
Jaylen Samuels0200
James Washington0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson13/2820822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins151137.50
Gus Edwards16875.41
Lamar Jackson16654.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead571060
Devin Duvernay13390
Mark Andrews36320
Miles Boykin23201
J.K. Dobbins1280
Marquise Brown1231
Nick Boyle0100
Gus Edwards0100
James Proche0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.80