Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
44
Model margin
+4.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.109
- 44.0%Success rate45.2%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.093
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.90CPOE-0.32
- 42.1%Third-down rate49.8%
- 70.3%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 2.12Points / drive2.64
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/32 | 182 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13/28 | 208 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 15 | 113 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 5 | 7 | 106 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Nick Boyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.80