Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.127
- 44.3%Success rate48.9%
- +0.078EPA / dropback+0.241
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.077
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.29CPOE+4.60
- 41.4%Third-down rate48.9%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.99Points / drive2.29
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/35 | 189 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 13 | 67 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 9 | 12 | 60 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Demetrius Williams | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/44 | 246 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 8 | 11 | 63 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 7 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 4 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 10 | 34 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.69