2009 · DIV

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

3·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -6.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapColts
  • +0.058EPA / play+0.127
  • 44.3%Success rate48.9%
  • +0.078EPA / dropback+0.241
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.077
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +2.29CPOE+4.60
  • 41.4%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.29
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–IND
INDQ1 15:00954Field goal0–3
BALQ1 10:441582Field goal3–3
INDQ1 2:57737Punt3–3
BALQ2 14:5438Punt3–3
INDQ2 13:3233Punt3–3
BALQ2 11:593-3Punt3–3
INDQ2 10:001480Touchdown3–10
BALQ2 2:0034Punt3–10
INDQ2 1:261044Touchdown3–17
BALQ2 0:0300End of half3–17
BALQ3 15:00640Punt3–17
INDQ3 11:5653Punt3–17
BALQ3 10:06836Turnover on downs3–17
INDQ3 6:0110Turnover3–17
INDQ3 5:471439Field goal3–20
BALQ4 13:26543Turnover3–20
INDQ4 10:5935Punt3–20
BALQ4 8:5932Punt3–20
INDQ4 8:0239Punt3–20
BALQ4 6:33539Turnover3–20
INDQ4 4:5333Punt3–20
BALQ4 3:11719Turnover3–20
INDQ4 1:0700End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3518902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice13675.20
Mark Clayton188.00
Willis McGahee273.50
Joe Flacco122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason47640
Ray Rice912600
Todd Heap47350
Demetrius Williams12120
Kelley Washington12110
Willis McGahee1170
Mark Clayton0300

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning30/4424621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai11232.10
Mike Hart6111.80
Donald Brown6101.70
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne811631
Dallas Clark79590
Austin Collie48521
Pierre Garcon510340
Donald Brown22150
Joseph Addai33140
Mike Hart1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.69