Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.089
- 45.5%Success rate49.1%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.025
- 8.4%Explosive rate11.4%
- -1.27CPOE+4.45
- 41.6%Third-down rate41.2%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
- 2.14Points / drive2.30
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/32 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
| Chase Daniel | 8/13 | 94 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 7 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 13/20 | 220 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 22 | 206 | 9.4 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
48.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.46