2020 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

20·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

51.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.089
  • 45.5%Success rate49.1%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.025
  • 8.4%Explosive rate11.4%
  • -1.27CPOE+4.45
  • 41.6%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
  • 2.14Points / drive2.30
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–18 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
DETQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:11567Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 10:391147Missed field goal0–7
MINQ1 4:07564Touchdown0–13
DETQ1 1:261470Field goal3–13
MINQ2 8:21625Punt3–13
DETQ2 5:11965Touchdown10–13
MINQ2 1:19687Touchdown10–20
DETQ2 0:15217End of half10–20
MINQ3 15:00426Punt10–20
DETQ3 12:5036Punt10–20
MINQ3 11:591059Touchdown10–27
DETQ3 7:50840Turnover10–27
MINQ3 4:4235Punt10–27
DETQ3 2:59517Turnover10–27
MINQ3 0:5037Punt10–27
DETQ4 14:35742Field goal13–27
MINQ4 11:02170Touchdown13–34
DETQ4 10:42228Turnover13–34
MINQ4 10:05418Punt19–34
DETQ4 6:5812Touchdown20–34
MINQ4 6:551159Turnover on downs20–34
DETQ4 1:55978End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3221112
Chase Daniel8/139411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift13644.90
Adrian Peterson8293.60
Kerryon Johnson4297.30
Chase Daniel155.00
Danny Amendola122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola710770
Marvin Jones34431
T.J. Hockenson58391
Kerryon Johnson33360
D'Andre Swift35330
Quintez Cephus22310
Marvin Hall35280
Adrian Peterson35140
Jesse James1100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins13/2022030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook222069.42
Alexander Mattison12695.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson34640
Dalvin Cook22460
Kyle Rudolph34400
Adam Thielen25380
Ameer Abdullah11221
Irv Smith24102

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

48.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.46