Closing spread
LV -1
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.043
- 47.4%Success rate43.8%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.141
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.18CPOE+0.07
- 45.5%Third-down rate45.1%
- 59.9%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.49Points / drive2.02
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 31-22-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 13/23 | 165 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 55 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 10 | 22 | 1 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 28/42 | 326 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalen Ballage | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Joe Reed | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 11 | 103 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 50 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.67