2020 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

31·26

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LV -1

Total

52.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapChargers
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.043
  • 47.4%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.141
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +2.18CPOE+0.07
  • 45.5%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 59.9%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.49Points / drive2.02
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–LAC
LACQ1 15:00513Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:2333Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:30636Missed field goal0–0
LVQ1 8:15762Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 4:421381Touchdown7–7
LVQ2 13:24525Punt7–7
LACQ2 10:293-4Punt7–7
LVQ2 8:57644Touchdown14–7
LACQ2 5:341185Touchdown14–14
LVQ2 0:1922Turnover14–17
LACQ2 0:0800Field goal14–17
LVQ2 0:0500End of half14–17
LVQ3 15:00455Touchdown21–17
LACQ3 13:1839Punt21–17
LVQ3 11:28875Touchdown28–17
LACQ3 7:49862Field goal28–20
LVQ3 4:19733Punt28–20
LACQ4 14:511377Touchdown28–26
LVQ4 9:0433Punt28–26
LVQ4 8:07518Field goal31–26
LACQ4 4:371581End of half31–26

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr13/2316520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker8688.51
Josh Jacobs14654.61
Derek Carr2147.00
Henry Ruggs III11010.00
Jalen Richard133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Renfrow23600
Nelson Agholor23551
Darren Waller510221
Jalen Richard11190
Josh Jacobs1130
Jason Witten1100
Henry Ruggs III0300

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert28/4232620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kalen Ballage15694.61
Joshua Kelley9283.10
Justin Herbert5244.80
Joe Reed273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen9111031
Mike Williams57810
Tyron Johnson11500
Hunter Henry47330
Joshua Kelley55310
Kalen Ballage23150
Jalen Guyton1290
Donald Parham0300
Joe Reed0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.67