Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.116
- 46.5%Success rate40.9%
- -0.040EPA / dropback-0.098
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- -2.06CPOE-2.07
- 41.3%Third-down rate34.4%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 1.88Points / drive1.24
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 27/35 | 274 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 12 | 14 | 169 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 5 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/25 | 262 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breshad Perriman | 5 | 7 | 101 | 2 |
| Denzel Mims | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| La'Mical Perine | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
0.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.63