2020 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

30·27

Jets

New York

QB Joe Flacco

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -9.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.116
  • 46.5%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.040EPA / dropback-0.098
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.146
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -2.06CPOE-2.07
  • 41.3%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.24
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001158Field goal0–3
NEQ1 8:33875Touchdown7–3
NYJQ1 3:34738Punt7–3
NEQ1 0:22520Punt7–3
NYJQ2 12:43688Touchdown7–10
NEQ2 9:59732Turnover on downs7–10
NYJQ2 6:13425Field goal7–13
NEQ2 4:331044Field goal10–13
NYJQ2 1:03335Touchdown10–20
NEQ2 0:2500End of half10–20
NEQ3 15:001378Touchdown17–20
NYJQ3 7:271175Touchdown17–27
NEQ3 0:301763Field goal20–27
NYJQ4 6:0410Turnover20–27
NEQ4 5:501377Touchdown27–27
NYJQ4 1:5733Punt27–27
NEQ4 0:47645Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton27/3527400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris14715.10
Rex Burkhead12564.71
Cam Newton10161.62
Gunner Olszewski3165.30
James White200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers12141690
Damiere Byrd59650
James White45240
Rex Burkhead33110
Jakob Johnson2260
Gunner Olszewski11-10

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/2526231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore12463.80
La'Mical Perine6193.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breshad Perriman571012
Denzel Mims48620
Ryan Griffin22280
Jamison Crowder22261
La'Mical Perine22190
Frank Gore22130
Braxton Berrios11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

0.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.63