2020 · Week 9 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
43
Model margin
+8.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.051
- 42.1%Success rate42.1%
- -0.051EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.030
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.04CPOE-1.32
- 35.1%Third-down rate40.2%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.57Points / drive1.76
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 23/34 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 9 | 67 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Mack | 4 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 10 | 48 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 6 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 24/32 | 325 | 1 | 3 |
| Kyle Allen | 5/7 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 8 | 115 | 1 |
| Cam Sims | 3 | 4 | 110 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 9 | 14 | 65 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.9%
Expected total
39.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.13
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+8.05