Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.176EPA / play+0.025
- 50.2%Success rate41.5%
- +0.282EPA / dropback+0.070
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- +1.48CPOE-0.27
- 48.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 2.71Points / drive1.80
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. BAL are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/41 | 335 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 15 | 34 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 10 | 142 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 9 | 12 | 108 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/39 | 382 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 20 | 101 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 6 | 10 | 127 | 2 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.76