2012 · Week 3

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

30·31

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 67°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapRavens
  • +0.176EPA / play+0.025
  • 50.2%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.282EPA / dropback+0.070
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.043
  • 9.5%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +1.48CPOE-0.27
  • 48.4%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.80
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. BAL are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2022 · W3BAL @ NE37–26BAL
2020 · W10BAL @ NE17–23NE
2019 · W9NE @ BAL20–37BAL
2016 · W14BAL @ NE23–30NE
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2013 · W16NE @ BAL41–7NE
2012 · playoffsBAL @ NE28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BAL
NEQ1 15:0042Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:4039Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:49771Field goal3–0
BALQ1 7:4810Turnover3–0
NEQ1 7:3136Touchdown10–0
BALQ1 7:0938Punt10–0
NEQ1 5:021165Field goal13–0
BALQ1 0:381495Touchdown13–7
NEQ2 9:45627Punt13–7
BALQ2 6:361092Touchdown13–14
NEQ2 1:471171Touchdown20–14
BALQ2 0:0200End of half20–14
BALQ3 15:00975Touchdown20–21
NEQ3 11:361265Touchdown27–21
BALQ3 6:48643Punt27–21
NEQ3 4:571358Field goal30–21
BALQ4 14:10846Turnover on downs30–21
NEQ4 10:50622Punt30–21
BALQ4 7:291192Touchdown30–28
NEQ4 4:0199Punt30–28
BALQ4 1:55645Field goal30–31

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4133510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley13372.80
Danny Woodhead15342.31
Tom Brady273.50
Brandon Bolden242.01
Julian Edelman2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker8101420
Brandon Lloyd9121080
Julian Edelman47281
Rob Gronkowski23210
Kellen Winslow12120
Deion Branch23110
Danny Woodhead1290
Michael Hoomanawanui1140
Stevan Ridley0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco28/3938231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice201015.01
Bernard Pierce4174.30
Joe Flacco231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith6101272
Jacoby Jones34860
Dennis Pitta57501
Ray Rice55490
Anquan Boldin47480
Bernard Pierce11100
Ed Dickson2250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.76