Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.035
- 44.2%Success rate44.0%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.122EPA / rush-0.134
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.03CPOE-0.90
- 37.1%Third-down rate42.1%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
- 1.87Points / drive2.12
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 21/40 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 9 | 115 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/46 | 333 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 11 | 116 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 9 | 13 | 77 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 4 | 10 | 56 | 2 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| James Conner | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.37