2020 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

34·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

49

Model margin

+0.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.189
  • 46.8%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.297
  • -0.048EPA / rush+0.070
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.03CPOE+2.16
  • 39.7%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.85
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:00667Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 11:501146Turnover on downs0–7
TENQ1 6:5434Punt0–7
INDQ1 5:061069Field goal3–7
TENQ1 0:36838Field goal3–10
INDQ2 11:12880Touchdown10–10
TENQ2 7:491347Touchdown10–17
INDQ2 2:541156Field goal13–17
INDQ3 15:001573Turnover on downs13–17
TENQ3 7:2459Punt13–17
INDQ3 4:09427Touchdown20–17
TENQ3 2:5131Opp touchdown27–17
TENQ3 1:521147Missed field goal27–17
INDQ4 12:11551Touchdown34–17
TENQ4 9:211063Turnover on downs34–17
INDQ4 6:52528Punt34–17
TENQ4 3:01618End of half34–17

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers29/3930810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nyheim Hines12705.81
Jordan Wilkins8283.50
Michael Pittman12121.00
Jonathan Taylor7121.70
Jacoby Brissett122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman781010
Nyheim Hines56451
T.Y. Hilton45400
Zach Pascal45330
Jonathan Taylor22250
Trey Burton33240
De'Michael Harris11210
Mo Alie-Cox34190
Marcus Johnson0100
Jordan Wilkins0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill15/2714710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry191035.40
Jeremy McNichols3268.70
D'Onta Foreman7182.60
Ryan Tannehill294.50
Jonnu Smith111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis56670
A.J. Brown14210
Jonnu Smith26140
Jeremy McNichols1180
Cameron Batson2280
Derrick Henry1260
Anthony Firkser1350
D'Onta Foreman1151
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

48.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.89