Closing spread
IND -1
Total
49
Model margin
+0.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.189
- 46.8%Success rate50.8%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.297
- -0.048EPA / rush+0.070
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.03CPOE+2.16
- 39.7%Third-down rate47.4%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 2.35Points / drive2.85
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 29/39 | 308 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyheim Hines | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 8 | 101 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| De'Michael Harris | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 15/27 | 147 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 103 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.89