2020 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

19·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Nick Foles

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

-2.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.016
  • 49.1%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.025EPA / rush-0.073
  • 11.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +4.45CPOE+1.28
  • 41.2%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 74.1%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.97
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
MINQ1 15:00842Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 10:2220Turnover0–0
MINQ1 9:34641Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 6:291370Field goal7–3
MINQ1 0:32629Punt7–3
CHIQ2 12:03826Punt7–3
MINQ2 6:32952Turnover7–3
CHIQ2 1:51421Field goal7–6
MINQ2 0:4920End of half7–12
CHIQ3 15:0000Touchdown7–13
MINQ3 14:46623Punt7–13
MINQ3 11:4431Field goal10–13
CHIQ3 10:5033Punt10–13
MINQ3 9:133-4Punt10–13
CHIQ3 7:0130Punt10–13
MINQ3 5:12770Field goal13–13
CHIQ3 1:523-5Punt13–13
MINQ4 14:491073Touchdown19–13
CHIQ4 10:0635Punt19–13
MINQ4 8:35729Punt19–13
CHIQ4 5:01511Turnover on downs19–13
MINQ4 2:04530Punt19–13
CHIQ4 0:44518Turnover on downs19–13
MINQ4 0:0300End of half19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins25/3629221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook30963.20
Alexander Mattison242.00
Kirk Cousins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson8101350
Kyle Rudolph45630
Adam Thielen47432
Dalvin Cook44160
Chad Beebe22160
Tyler Conklin22110
Bisi Johnson0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles15/2610601
Tyler Bray1/51800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson12302.50
Artavis Pierce393.00
Nick Foles122.00
Ryan Nall100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson69430
Anthony Miller27280
Cordarrelle Patterson22190
Ryan Nall12180
Cole Kmet1370
Lamar Miller2260
Darnell Mooney2230
Jimmy Graham0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.6%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.54
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.80