Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
-2.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play-0.016
- 49.1%Success rate44.0%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.073
- 11.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- +4.45CPOE+1.28
- 41.2%Third-down rate34.8%
- 74.1%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.30Points / drive1.97
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/36 | 292 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 30 | 96 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 10 | 135 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 7 | 43 | 2 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Chad Beebe | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 15/26 | 106 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Bray | 1/5 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Artavis Pierce | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.54
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.80