2020 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

17·27

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

PHI -4.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.057
  • 41.8%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.067
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -4.93CPOE-2.04
  • 36.0%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.57
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00880Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 11:111158Field goal3–7
NYGQ1 6:271370Touchdown3–14
PHIQ2 14:57546Punt3–14
NYGQ2 11:5038Punt3–14
PHIQ2 10:301130Punt3–14
NYGQ2 6:131054Punt3–14
PHIQ2 1:0731Punt3–14
NYGQ2 0:4056Turnover on downs3–14
PHIQ3 15:00584Touchdown11–14
NYGQ3 12:31675Touchdown11–21
PHIQ3 9:49868Touchdown17–21
NYGQ3 5:2039Punt17–21
PHIQ3 2:48412Punt17–21
NYGQ3 1:04516Punt17–21
PHIQ4 14:0456Punt17–21
NYGQ4 11:02824Field goal17–24
PHIQ4 7:45824Turnover on downs17–24
NYGQ4 4:52538Field goal17–27
PHIQ4 3:06517Turnover on downs17–27
NYGQ4 2:0134End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz21/3720800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders15855.70
Boston Scott36321.01
Corey Clement155.01
Carson Wentz242.00
Jalen Hurts2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Richard Rodgers45600
Jalen Reagor47470
Greg Ward56390
Dallas Goedert46330
Boston Scott11110
Miles Sanders25100
Travis Fulgham1580
Alshon Jeffery0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones21/2824400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones9647.11
Wayne Gallman18532.92
Alfred Morris8344.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton57930
Sterling Shepard66470
Golden Tate25440
Dion Lewis22170
Evan Engram23150
Kaden Smith22120
Austin Mack1190
Wayne Gallman1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

40.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.31