Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.057
- 41.8%Success rate42.1%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- -4.93CPOE-2.04
- 36.0%Third-down rate35.1%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.61Points / drive1.57
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 21/37 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 85 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 63 | 21.0 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Rodgers | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis Fulgham | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/28 | 244 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 9 | 64 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Alfred Morris | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 7 | 93 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 6 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Austin Mack | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.31