Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
56.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutMitchell SchwartzTBack· DNP
- OutTaco CharltonDEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMike RemmersTRib· Full
- QuestionableSammy WatkinsWRHamstring· Limited
Raiders
- QuestionableJalen RichardRBChest· DNP
- QuestionableMaurice HurstDTAnkle· Limited
- LimitedAlec IngoldRBRibs
- LimitedSam YoungTKnee
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.177EPA / play+0.066
- 50.2%Success rate47.4%
- +0.288EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.067
- 11.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.60CPOE+2.18
- 49.5%Third-down rate45.5%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
- 2.85Points / drive2.49
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. LV are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–LV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 11:25 | 14 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 4:01 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 15:00 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LV | Q2 11:16 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| KC | Q2 4:36 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LV | Q2 2:07 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 14–17 |
| KC | Q2 1:24 | 10 | 63 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:26 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–17 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 16 | 93 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| LV | Q3 6:23 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| KC | Q4 14:54 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 21–24 |
| LV | Q4 13:14 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–24 |
| KC | Q4 11:33 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| LV | Q4 5:54 | 14 | 51 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| KC | Q4 1:43 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 35–31 |
| LV | Q4 0:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 35–31 |
| KC | Q4 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 35–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 34/45 | 348 | 2 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 127 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 14 | 102 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Keizer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 23/31 | 275 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 6 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 7 | 7 | 88 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.76