Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
56.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.177EPA / play+0.066
- 50.2%Success rate47.4%
- +0.288EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.067
- 11.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.60CPOE+2.18
- 49.5%Third-down rate45.5%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
- 2.85Points / drive2.49
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. LV are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 34/45 | 348 | 2 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 127 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 14 | 102 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Keizer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 23/31 | 275 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 6 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 7 | 7 | 88 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.76