2020 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Robert Griffin

14·19

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

PIT -10.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.035
  • 45.2%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback+0.118
  • +0.093EPA / rush-0.134
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.32CPOE-0.90
  • 49.8%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
  • 2.64Points / drive2.12
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:4235Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:441-3Turnover0–0
PITQ1 11:40215Turnover0–0
PITQ1 10:2611Turnover0–0
PITQ1 9:5935Turnover0–0
BALQ1 8:2236Opp touchdown0–6
BALQ1 6:5743Punt0–6
BALQ1 4:31421Touchdown7–6
PITQ1 2:071173Field goal7–9
BALQ2 11:5000Punt7–9
BALQ2 11:5033Punt7–9
PITQ2 9:411265Field goal7–12
BALQ2 4:271169End of half7–12
PITQ3 15:0058Turnover on downs7–12
BALQ3 13:26819Punt7–12
PITQ3 9:03519Punt7–12
BALQ3 5:273-5Punt7–12
PITQ3 3:121261Touchdown7–19
BALQ4 13:2048Punt7–19
PITQ4 11:30735Punt7–19
BALQ4 7:21714Punt7–19
PITQ4 5:1335Punt7–19
BALQ4 3:30279Touchdown14–19
PITQ4 2:58743End of half14–19

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trace McSorley2/67710
Robert Griffin III7/123301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Griffin III7689.70
Justice Hill9353.90
Trace McSorley3165.30
Gus Edwards9101.11

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown48851
Devin Duvernay33200
Justice Hill2250
Dez Bryant0200
Luke Willson0200
James Proche0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger36/5126611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Benny Snell16603.80
Anthony McFarland393.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron711540
Chase Claypool69520
Diontae Johnson813460
JuJu Smith-Schuster89371
Benny Snell34330
James Washington23190
Anthony McFarland11170
Ray-Ray McCloud1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.4%7.3%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.8%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.83