Closing spread
PIT -10.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.035
- 45.2%Success rate44.0%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.118
- +0.093EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.32CPOE-0.90
- 49.8%Third-down rate42.1%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
- 2.64Points / drive2.12
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trace McSorley | 2/6 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 7/12 | 33 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 7 | 68 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Trace McSorley | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 36/51 | 266 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 7 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 13 | 46 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8 | 9 | 37 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.83