Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.221
- 44.0%Success rate50.7%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.353
- -0.073EPA / rush+0.025
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.28CPOE+6.90
- 34.8%Third-down rate50.7%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
- 1.97Points / drive2.98
- 2.0%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 26/46 | 242 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 11 | 103 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 8 | 13 | 74 | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 5 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Riley Ridley | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/29 | 211 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Tonyan | 5 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Jace Sternberger | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+5.65