2020 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

25·41

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.221
  • 44.0%Success rate50.7%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.353
  • -0.073EPA / rush+0.025
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.28CPOE+6.90
  • 34.8%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.98
  • 2.0%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:001475Touchdown0–6
CHIQ1 7:22559Field goal3–6
GBQ1 5:141060Touchdown3–13
CHIQ2 14:55546Turnover3–13
GBQ2 12:241475Touchdown3–20
CHIQ2 4:344-1Opp touchdown3–27
CHIQ2 3:111585Touchdown10–27
GBQ2 0:1913End of half10–27
CHIQ3 15:00410Punt10–27
GBQ3 12:29616Punt10–27
CHIQ3 9:353-1Turnover10–27
GBQ3 8:45453Touchdown10–34
CHIQ3 6:3030Punt10–34
GBQ3 6:09966Touchdown10–41
CHIQ3 1:121370Touchdown17–41
GBQ4 11:48515Punt17–41
CHIQ4 8:371582Touchdown25–41
GBQ4 3:21630End of half25–41

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky26/4624232

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery111039.40
Mitchell Trubisky3103.30
Cordarrelle Patterson284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson813742
David Montgomery56401
Darnell Mooney39340
Jimmy Graham34320
Anthony Miller36280
Riley Ridley22160
Ryan Nall11100
Cole Kmet1380

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/2921140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones17905.30
Jamaal Williams17734.31
Aaron Rodgers2126.00
Equanimeous St. Brown177.00
Tim Boyle200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Tonyan55671
Davante Adams69611
Equanimeous St. Brown22390
Allen Lazard46231
Marcedes Lewis24161
Jace Sternberger1150
Aaron Jones1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+5.65