2020 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

20·3

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

MIA -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

-5.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.116
  • 46.8%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback-0.098
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.146
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.23CPOE-2.07
  • 38.5%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.24
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00965Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 9:45842Punt0–3
NYJQ1 6:25514Punt0–3
MIAQ1 3:30635Field goal3–3
NYJQ1 1:12425Punt3–3
MIAQ2 14:071183Touchdown10–3
NYJQ2 8:5634Punt10–3
MIAQ2 7:53536Field goal13–3
NYJQ2 5:231282Missed field goal13–3
MIAQ3 15:003-6Punt13–3
NYJQ3 14:00640Turnover13–3
MIAQ3 10:51519Punt13–3
NYJQ3 9:10419Punt13–3
MIAQ3 6:42627Turnover13–3
NYJQ3 4:0931Punt13–3
MIAQ3 3:13619Turnover13–3
NYJQ3 0:3848Turnover on downs13–3
MIAQ4 13:2439Punt13–3
NYJQ4 11:5430Punt13–3
MIAQ4 10:33948Touchdown20–3
NYJQ4 6:5422Turnover20–3
MIAQ4 6:20735End of half20–3

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick24/3925720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAndre Washington13493.80
Matt Breida8364.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick3103.30
Patrick Laird199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker8141190
Mike Gesicki25351
Mack Hollins23190
Durham Smythe33190
Matt Breida22170
Jakeem Grant22150
DeAndre Washington25110
Malcolm Perry1180
Adam Shaheen1271
Antonio Callaway1170
Lynn Bowden0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold16/2719702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore18744.10
Sam Darnold294.50
Ty Johnson231.50
Josh Adams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breshad Perriman48790
Denzel Mims48670
Jamison Crowder35310
Frank Gore33120
Jeff Smith1170
Ty Johnson1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.4%6.4%3.5%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.6%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.11