Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
-5.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.116
- 46.8%Success rate40.9%
- +0.115EPA / dropback-0.098
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.146
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.23CPOE-2.07
- 38.5%Third-down rate34.4%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 1.99Points / drive1.24
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 24/39 | 257 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Washington | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 8 | 14 | 119 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| DeAndre Washington | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Malcolm Perry | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Antonio Callaway | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/27 | 197 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breshad Perriman | 4 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 4 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.11