2020 · Week 12 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

23·20

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.013
  • 45.8%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.081
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.74CPOE+0.37
  • 39.6%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.76
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
SFQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:35632Turnover0–0
SFQ1 11:05416Turnover0–0
LAQ1 9:11541Field goal0–3
SFQ1 6:52575Touchdown7–3
LAQ1 4:10411Turnover7–3
SFQ1 2:211-3Turnover7–3
LAQ1 2:1537Punt7–3
SFQ1 1:0139Punt7–3
LAQ2 14:1468Punt7–3
SFQ2 9:59530Punt7–3
LAQ2 6:3138Punt7–3
SFQ2 4:57635Punt7–3
LAQ2 1:43629Turnover7–3
SFQ2 0:30422Missed field goal7–3
LAQ2 0:0200End of half7–3
LAQ3 15:0022Opp touchdown14–3
LAQ3 14:2248Punt14–3
SFQ3 13:1530Punt14–3
LAQ3 12:1238Punt14–3
SFQ3 10:061048Field goal17–3
LAQ3 4:30653Field goal17–6
SFQ3 2:381-5Opp touchdown17–13
SFQ3 2:323-9Punt17–13
LAQ3 0:32368Touchdown17–20
SFQ4 14:17519Punt17–20
LAQ4 11:47515Punt17–20
SFQ4 8:45949Field goal20–20
LAQ4 3:11519Punt20–20
SFQ4 2:101051Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens24/3525201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert16432.71
Jeff Wilson12403.30
Jerick McKinnon3217.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.11131330
Kendrick Bourne35340
Richie James11290
Jordan Reed26180
Jerick McKinnon23110
Ross Dwelley1230
Raheem Mostert2200

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff19/3119802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers9849.31
Darrell Henderson10191.90
Jared Goff5112.20
Robert Woods188.00
Malcolm Brown341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods712800
Cooper Kupp25410
Josh Reynolds56400
Gerald Everett22160
Malcolm Brown22150
Tyler Higbee1260
Darrell Henderson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

38.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+2.96