Closing spread
LA -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.013
- 45.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.74CPOE+0.37
- 39.6%Third-down rate44.2%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 2.03Points / drive1.76
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 24/35 | 252 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 16 | 43 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 11 | 13 | 133 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/31 | 198 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 9 | 84 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 7 | 12 | 80 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
38.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+2.96