2020 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

45·26

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

51.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • +0.189EPA / play+0.083
  • 50.8%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.297EPA / dropback+0.181
  • +0.070EPA / rush-0.048
  • 10.3%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +2.16CPOE-0.03
  • 47.4%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 76.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.35
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
TENQ1 15:001075Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 9:121275Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 2:34580Touchdown14–7
INDQ1 0:09766Touchdown14–14
TENQ2 12:51416Punt14–14
INDQ2 11:1536Punt14–14
TENQ2 9:441050Touchdown21–14
INDQ2 6:15414Punt21–14
TENQ2 4:25981Touchdown28–14
INDQ2 1:4141Punt28–14
TENQ2 1:13544Touchdown35–14
INDQ2 0:2000End of half35–14
INDQ3 15:00415Punt35–14
TENQ3 13:42516Punt35–14
INDQ3 11:3679Punt35–14
TENQ3 8:44416Punt35–14
INDQ3 6:26414Turnover35–14
TENQ3 5:38742Field goal38–14
INDQ3 0:44975Touchdown38–20
TENQ4 13:231034Punt38–20
INDQ4 5:551371Touchdown44–26
TENQ4 2:3400Touchdown45–26
INDQ4 2:294-9Turnover on downs45–26
TENQ4 1:4700End of half45–26

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill13/2222110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry271786.63
D'Onta Foreman4287.00
Jeremy McNichols8202.50
Cameron Batson155.00
Ryan Tannehill231.51
Logan Woodside3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown46981
Corey Davis33700
Geoff Swaim33300
Derrick Henry2470
Kalif Raymond0100
Anthony Firkser0100
Jeremy McNichols0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers24/4229521
Jacoby Brissett0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nyheim Hines10292.90
Jordan Wilkins6223.70
Jacoby Brissett430.82
De'Michael Harris122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton45811
Nyheim Hines810660
Trey Burton36421
Jordan Wilkins34350
Michael Pittman29280
Zach Pascal14230
Mo Alie-Cox22190
De'Michael Harris1110
Jack Doyle0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

48.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.52