Closing spread
IND -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.189EPA / play+0.083
- 50.8%Success rate46.8%
- +0.297EPA / dropback+0.181
- +0.070EPA / rush-0.048
- 10.3%Explosive rate11.3%
- +2.16CPOE-0.03
- 47.4%Third-down rate39.7%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.85Points / drive2.35
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/22 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 27 | 178 | 6.6 | 3 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Logan Woodside | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 98 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 24/42 | 295 | 2 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyheim Hines | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 2 |
| De'Michael Harris | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 5 | 81 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 8 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 3 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| De'Michael Harris | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52