2020 · Week 12 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+0.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.029
- 42.1%Success rate46.1%
- -0.063EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.32CPOE-1.42
- 40.2%Third-down rate41.5%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.76Points / drive1.87
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/26 | 149 | 1 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 1/1 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 20 | 115 | 5.8 | 3 |
| Peyton Barber | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/35 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 8 | 112 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 6 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
39.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.29