2020 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

41·16

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Andy Dalton

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+0.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.029
  • 42.1%Success rate46.1%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.32CPOE-1.42
  • 40.2%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.87
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
WASQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:081057Field goal0–3
WASQ1 8:301470Touchdown7–3
DALQ1 1:37575Touchdown7–10
WASQ2 14:081367Field goal10–10
DALQ2 7:1349Turnover on downs10–10
WASQ2 5:17519Touchdown17–10
DALQ2 2:261033Field goal17–13
WASQ2 0:1900End of half17–13
DALQ3 15:0028Turnover17–13
WASQ3 14:17520Field goal20–13
DALQ3 10:48622Punt20–13
WASQ3 7:42945Turnover20–13
DALQ3 4:103-6Field goal20–16
WASQ3 2:32412Punt20–16
DALQ3 0:31711Turnover on downs26–16
WASQ4 12:13123Touchdown27–16
DALQ4 12:07619Punt27–16
WASQ4 9:211076Touchdown34–16
DALQ4 3:3110Opp touchdown41–16
DALQ4 3:24619Turnover on downs41–16
WASQ4 2:08312End of half41–16

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/2614911
Logan Thomas1/12800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson201155.83
Peyton Barber11575.20
J.D. McKissic166.00
Logan Thomas133.00
Alex Smith310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin79920
J.D. McKissic22210
Antonio Gibson57210
Logan Thomas44201
Dontrelle Inman11150
Steven Sims1180

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton25/3521511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott10323.20
Andy Dalton3175.70
Tony Pollard4123.00
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper681121
Michael Gallup68410
Dalton Schultz55240
CeeDee Lamb57210
Tony Pollard22100
Ezekiel Elliott1370
Noah Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

39.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.29