Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
44
Model margin
+4.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.016
- 45.5%Success rate44.0%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.073
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.27CPOE+1.28
- 41.6%Third-down rate34.8%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.14Points / drive1.97
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/42 | 402 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 8 | 12 | 116 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 2 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 26/34 | 267 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Javon Wims | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.26