2020 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

34·30

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

44

Model margin

+4.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • +0.014EPA / play-0.016
  • 45.5%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.073
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -1.27CPOE+1.28
  • 41.6%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.14Points / drive1.97
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00527Field goal0–3
DETQ1 12:37751Turnover on downs0–3
CHIQ1 9:29666Touchdown0–9
DETQ1 6:131272Touchdown6–9
CHIQ1 0:151070Touchdown6–16
DETQ2 10:1067Punt6–16
CHIQ2 8:06727Punt6–16
DETQ2 4:20577Touchdown13–16
CHIQ2 2:22763Touchdown13–23
DETQ2 0:36527End of half13–23
DETQ3 15:00521Punt13–23
CHIQ3 11:31519Punt13–23
DETQ3 9:021066Touchdown20–23
CHIQ3 3:551267Touchdown20–30
DETQ4 11:23532Turnover20–30
CHIQ4 9:22416Punt20–30
DETQ4 7:2235Punt20–30
CHIQ4 6:383-2Punt20–30
DETQ4 4:33796Touchdown27–30
CHIQ4 2:183-4Turnover27–30
DETQ4 1:4827Touchdown34–30
CHIQ4 1:37740Turnover on downs34–30
DETQ4 0:1100End of half34–30

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4240231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson16573.62
Kerryon Johnson331.00
Matthew Stafford200.00
Jamal Agnew100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones8121161
T.J. Hockenson79840
Quintez Cephus24631
Danny Amendola35620
Mohamed Sanu22360
Jamal Agnew22240
Jesse James1391
Kerryon Johnson2380
Adrian Peterson0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky26/3426710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery17724.22
Cordarrelle Patterson10595.91
Mitchell Trubisky362.00
Anthony Miller133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson67750
Anthony Miller55560
Darnell Mooney46430
David Montgomery44390
Cole Kmet57371
Javon Wims11130
Cordarrelle Patterson1240
Jimmy Graham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

47.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.26