Closing spread
LA -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
+0.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutTerrell LewisLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBrian AllenCKnee· Full
- QuestionableSebastian JosephDTHip· Limited
- DNPMichael BrockersDENot Injury Related
Cardinals
- OutJalen ThompsonSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAngelo BlacksonDTIllness· DNP
- QuestionableCharles WashingtonSGroin· Limited
- QuestionableRashard LawrenceDTCalf· Limited
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.051
- 44.6%Success rate46.0%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.009
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.37CPOE+2.07
- 44.2%Third-down rate40.2%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 1.76Points / drive2.19
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | LA–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 13:25 | 8 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 9:29 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:54 | 8 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 4:04 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:47 | 14 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 10:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 9:36 | 8 | 54 | Turnover on downs | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 5:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 4:18 | 9 | 45 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q2 0:51 | 5 | 20 | Missed field goal | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q3 10:26 | 15 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LA | Q3 4:03 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| ARI | Q4 14:52 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 24–14 |
| ARI | Q4 13:46 | 2 | 15 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| LA | Q4 13:21 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 31–21 |
| ARI | Q4 10:07 | 8 | 1 | Turnover | 31–21 |
| LA | Q4 7:17 | 4 | 17 | Missed field goal | 31–21 |
| ARI | Q4 5:09 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 38–21 |
| ARI | Q4 4:33 | 8 | 48 | Touchdown | 38–28 |
| LA | Q4 2:04 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 38–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 37/47 | 351 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 10 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 6 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 21/39 | 173 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 3 | 61 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 13 | 52 | 1 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
38.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.05