Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.043
- 46.5%Success rate43.8%
- -0.040EPA / dropback+0.154
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.141
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- -2.06CPOE+0.07
- 41.3%Third-down rate45.1%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.88Points / drive2.02
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. LAC are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 12/19 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2/3 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Sony Michel | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 26/53 | 209 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| K.J. Hill | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.50