2020 · Week 13

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

45·0

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapChargers
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.043
  • 46.5%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.040EPA / dropback+0.154
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.141
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -2.06CPOE+0.07
  • 41.3%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.02
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. LAC are 6-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLAC @ NE3–16NE
2024 · W17LAC @ NE40–7CHARGERS
2023 · W13LAC @ NE6–0CHARGERS
2021 · W8NE @ LAC27–24NE
2018 · playoffsLAC @ NE28–41NE
2017 · W8LAC @ NE13–21NE
2014 · W14NE @ SD23–14NE
2011 · W2SD @ NE21–35NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–LAC
NEQ1 15:001375Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 7:501145Missed field goal7–0
NEQ1 1:253-1Punt7–0
LACQ2 15:0031Opp touchdown14–0
LACQ2 14:0236Punt14–0
NEQ2 12:24637Punt14–0
LACQ2 8:05411Punt14–0
NEQ2 6:321654Touchdown21–0
LACQ2 0:51539Opp touchdown28–0
LACQ3 15:00620Turnover28–0
NEQ3 12:22825Touchdown35–0
LACQ3 8:441042Turnover35–0
NEQ3 5:11931Punt35–0
LACQ3 0:27615Punt35–0
NEQ4 13:2533Field goal38–0
LACQ4 11:21931Turnover on downs38–0
NEQ4 8:13461Touchdown45–0
LACQ4 6:501042Turnover on downs45–0
NEQ4 4:0638Punt45–0
LACQ4 2:0746Turnover on downs45–0
NEQ4 1:1800End of half45–0

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton12/196910
Jarrett Stidham2/36110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris16805.00
Cam Newton14483.42
Sony Michel10353.50
Donte Moncrief144.00
Jarrett Stidham2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gunner Olszewski11381
Sony Michel11230
Damiere Byrd23160
Jakobi Meyers26150
N'Keal Harry23151
Damien Harris11150
Ryan Izzo1160
James White3410
Jakob Johnson1110

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert26/5320902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler8364.50
Kalen Ballage7344.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen511480
Mike Williams49430
Jalen Guyton27380
Austin Ekeler49320
Donald Parham24210
K.J. Hill1170
Stephen Anderson1260
Hunter Henry1250
Kalen Ballage3450
Joshua Kelley2230
Tyron Johnson1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.50